Tesla’s 3Q Delivery Estimates deliveries of the third quarter of 2023 are down 5% from the record second quarter, but up 29% from the same period last year. The delivery decline reflects pre-announced factory upgrades and the China M-3 Highland transition, which left Tesla with no M-3 inventory to sell in China or Europe in the last weeks of the quarter.
Analyst Dan Ives estimates that Tesla will deliver 445,000 vehicles in the third quarter, with 113,000 Model 3s, 314,000 Model Ys, and 18,000 Model S and X vehicles. This would compare to 466,000 deliveries in the second quarter and 343,000 deliveries in the third quarter of 2022.
Ives also estimates that Tesla will produce 432,000 vehicles in the third quarter, which would imply an inventory reduction of 13,000 vehicles and 15 days of sales outstanding (DSO), compared to 16 DSO at the end of the second quarter.
Tesla is expected to release its third-quarter production and delivery results before the market opens on Monday, October 2.
The delivery decline in the third quarter is likely to be temporary, as Tesla is expected to ramp up production at its new Gigafactories in Texas and Germany in the coming months. Tesla has also said that it plans to launch a new, more affordable electric vehicle in 2023.
My final $TSLA 3Q deliv est remains 445K, down -5% from the record 466K in 2Q, and +29% vs 3Q YA. The 3Q delivery decline reflects pre-announced factory upgrades and the China M-3 Highland transition, which left TSLA with no M-3 inventory to sell in China or Europe in the last… pic.twitter.com/VXmpaMbBHL
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) September 29, 2023
Despite the delivery decline in the third quarter, Ives remains bullish on Tesla, maintaining his $370 price target on the stock. Ives believes that Tesla is well-positioned to benefit from the long-term shift to electric vehicles.
Tesla’s 3Q Delivery Estimates: What to Watch
Tesla’s third-quarter delivery estimates will be closely watched by investors and analysts alike, as they will provide insights into the company’s performance during a challenging period.
One key factor to watch will be the performance of the Model 3 and Model Y, which are Tesla’s two most popular vehicles. Ives estimates that Tesla will deliver 113,000 Model 3s and 314,000 Model Ys in the third quarter. If these estimates are accurate, it would indicate that Tesla is still facing some demand challenges, as the Model 3 and Model Y are both down from the second quarter.
Another factor to watch will be the performance of the Model S and Model X. These vehicles are Tesla’s higher-end vehicles, and they have been impacted by supply chain challenges. Ives estimates that Tesla will deliver 18,000 Model S and X vehicles in the third quarter, which would be up slightly from the second quarter.
Tesla’s third-quarter delivery estimates are likely to be mixed. On the one hand, the company is facing some demand challenges, particularly with the Model 3 and Model Y. On the other hand, the company is ramping up production at its new Gigafactories and is expected to launch a new, more affordable electric vehicle in 2023.
Investors and analysts will be looking for Tesla to provide guidance on its delivery expectations for the fourth quarter and for the full year when it releases its third-quarter results. Tesla has maintained its full-year delivery target of 1.8 million vehicles, but some analysts are concerned that the company may have to lower its guidance.
What to Expect from Tesla’s 3Q Earnings Call
In addition to delivery results, investors and analysts will be listening closely to Tesla’s earnings call for insights into the company’s financial performance and its outlook for the future.
One key thing to watch will be Tesla’s margins. The company has been facing some margin pressure due to rising costs, particularly for raw materials. Investors will be looking for Tesla to provide guidance on its margin expectations for the fourth quarter and for the full year.
Another key thing to watch will be Tesla’s capital spending plans. The company is investing heavily in its new Gigafactories and in its new electric vehicle programs. Investors will be looking for Tesla to provide guidance on its capital spending plans for the fourth quarter and for the full year.
Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call is likely to be a key event for investors and analysts. The company is facing some challenges, but it is also well-positioned to benefit from the long-term shift to electric vehicles.
